It is now commonplace to say, “Well, that was a wild week,” because every week seems to outdo the last under this administration. While I receive dozens of questions each week, this week may have set a record for inquiries about what these developments really mean. I’m always glad to answer what I can or direct you to better sources if needed.
Here we go:
How soon will federal employees stop getting paychecks, and who has the most essential jobs that will quickly affect most Americans?
Starting on October 15th, the military will stop receiving paychecks. Other federal workers will follow in the week after that.
After the last shutdown, Congress passed law ensuring federal workers would be paid once the government reopens. However, the Trump administration contends it could withhold pay from workers during a shutdown, not pay them ever and layoffs began on Friday. As of 10/12, Trump’s administration has laid off over 4,000 federal employees and the president indicated this will continue.
Can ICE/DHS detain someone without a warrant?
Yes. ICE/DHS can detain someone without a judicial warrant if they have probable cause or reasonable suspicion that the person is in the U.S. without legal authorization. Federal law, specifically Section 287 of the Immigration and Nationality Act, authorizes ICE officers to make warrantless arrests for immigration violations. However, recent court rulings—such as the extension of the Castañon Nava consent decree—have imposed some limits on these arrests in certain areas, requiring more justification.
Probable cause is difficult to define precisely, but currently, many agents and officials—including DHS Secretary, the President, Attorney General, and FBI Director—believe ICE can assume probable cause based on factors like appearance, skin color, behavior, language, and neighborhood.
Notably, over 70% of ICE detainees have no criminal record, meaning there’s often no justification for probable cause in most cases.
Are protests and boycotts really effective in creating change?
YES! Particularly, when they build over time. We keep growing the movement and decentralizing. There are thousands of individual ICE protests monthly and the NO Kings movement is growing exponentially.
Successful protests tend to share key characteristics:
Large and diverse participation: Mass mobilization across broad segments of the population makes it hard for authorities to ignore and signals widespread support. Studies show that nonviolent campaigns involving at least 3.5% of the population can be effective.
Clear demands and cohesion: Focused, simple messages with specific goals improve influence on both public opinion and policy.
Sustained and peaceful tactics: Nonviolent campaigns are twice as successful as violent ones because they attract more participants and delegitimize regimes that use force.
Strategic timing and context: Protests are more effective when public support is high and political allies are willing to champion the cause.
What is the “NPSM 7” directive Trump and Hegseth keep referring to?
a. The Trump administration is reportedly creating “secret lists of terrorist groups inside the United States,” as Senator Elissa Slotkin mentioned on the Senate floor—referring to National Security Presidential Memorandum 7 (NSPM-7), signed by Trump.
b. This directive reportedly aims to categorize “anti-Christian” and “anti-capitalist” sentiments as domestic terrorism. As a result, the FBI’s domestic terrorism watchlist is expected to double in size in the coming months, effectively labeling anyone who believes in free speech.
What do you think will happen to resolve the shutdown, and why?
I believe Republicans are starting to face significant pushback from constituents over skyrocketing insurance prices and Medicaid cuts.
Some GOP lawmakers, including Marjorie Taylor Greene, Don Bacon, and Thomas Massie, have publicly opposed Trump on healthcare and the Epstein files. Governors of Oklahoma and Vermont—Kevin Stitt and Phil Scott—have also condemned Trump’s deployment of National Guard troops to Illinois.
I believe there are fractures in the GOP and they will be forced to the shutdown negotiations table in the next two-three weeks. Stay tuned.
How do you think the Epstein case will end?
It’s uncertain, but certain developments are clear:
Subpoenas for individuals connected to Epstein’s activities will continue through the oversight and judiciary committees, leading to more disclosures.
The 218 votes needed to pass legislation requiring the full Epstein files to be made public are in place, and Speaker Johnson could bring the bill to the floor.
Victims and survivors might release documents, photos, and names to the public at anytime.
Historically, leaked information is likely, so watch for this development.
What is soft secession?
The best way to understand this concept is through a recent column I wrote:
Why do some local police cooperate with ICE while others don’t?
Cooperation depends on voluntary agreements, state and local laws, and law enforcement priorities. The federal government does not require local agencies to participate in immigration enforcement. Some states such as Illinois have laws that prohibit engagement with ICE enforcement.
Cooperation with ICE involves the 287(g) program agreements, which include three models:
Jail Enforcement Model: Identifies removable non-citizens booked into jails with pending or active criminal charges.
Task Force Model: Allows local officers with limited authority to enforce immigration law during routine police duties, like traffic stops.
Warrant Service Officer Program: Authorizes officers to serve administrative warrants on non-citizens in their agency’s custody.
If you have other questions or ideas about what you would like to hear about, shoot me a note.
Good News: We are making progress folks, history is on our side. Pushing back, protesting, boycotting, being loud, using the law and using public optics: all of the actions work well went done regularly and with enthusiasm.
And, we are!
No silver bullet, but we are winning on many fronts.
Keep going have a great week!
M
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Super Q&A. Thank you, Marie!
Can you share your source for your note that 70% of ICE Detainees have no criminal record? It would help to be able to cite a source when talking about this with public. Thank you.